September's Nonresidential Construction Starts +13% M/M, +31% Y/Y & -2% YTD

A Chipmaker to the Rescue

ConstructConnect announced today that September 2021’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $38.0 billion (see shaded green box, bottom of Table 8 below), an increase of +12.7% compared with August 2021’s level of $33.7 billion (originally reported as $33.0 billion).

September's Nonresidential Construction Starts -14% M/M, -11% Y/Y & -6% YTD Graphic

Compared with September 2020, the latest month’s nonresidential starts were +31.1%. On a year-to-date basis, they were -2.3%. GRAND TOTAL starts in September 2021 (i.e., including residential activity) were +7.4% m/m, +19.6% y/y, and +7.3% ytd.   

September's Nonresidential Construction Starts -14% M/M, -11% Y/Y & -6% YTD Graphic
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Click here to download the complete Construction Industry Snapshot Package – September 2021 PDF.

The latest month’s starts statistics feature three mega-sized projects of a billion dollars or more each, adding to $10.3 billion. At $1.3 billion and $1.0 billion are a plastics plant in Louisiana and a university medical complex in California (see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – September 2021). But those two projects, big as they are, take back seats to the estimated $8.0 billion undertaking being launched by computer chipmaker Intel Corporation in Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. The company has announced capital spending of $20 billion on two plants, but major portions of the bill will be directed towards equipment. Especially important in high-tech chip plants are ultra-‘clean’ rooms to avoid micro-fiber and other forms of contamination in the production process.    

The most prominent mega project in last year’s September starts statistics was the Tesla Cybertruck Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, for $1.1 billion.  

Up, Down, and Sideways

ConstructConnect’s ‘starts’ statistics through the first three quarters of 2021 hiked along markedly different routes. Versus results for Jan-Sept 2020, residential starts pulled ahead by a fifth, +21.1%; heavy engineering/civil was little better than flat, +1.7%; and nonresidential building stumbled, -4.9%.   

On a month-to-month basis in September, however, it was nonresidential building that took the lead, +31.0%. Residential was in a holding pattern, +1.3%; and heavy engineering/civil fell behind, -14.4%.

Progression of Trailing 12-Month (TTM) Starts Clearly Healthier

Other statistics often beloved by analysts are trailing twelve-month (TTM) results and these are set out for all the various type-of-structure categories in Table 8 of this report below. Grand Total TTM starts in September on a month-to-month basis were +1.5%, compared with -0.1% in August and +1.0% in July. On a year-over-year basis in September, GT TTM starts were +1.2% versus -1.7% in August and -4.0% in July. The progression of y/y GT TTM starts, from significant decline to mild decline to marginally positive, is clearly in a healthier direction.

Census Bureau’s PIP Numbers Highlight Homebuilding Surge

‘Starts’ compile the total estimated dollar value and square footage of all projects on which ground is broken in any given month. They lead, by nine months to as much as two years, put-in-place (PIP) statistics which are analogous to work-in-progress payments as the building of structures proceeds to completion.

PIP numbers cover the ‘universe’ of construction, new plus all manner of renovation activity, with residential traditionally making up two-fifths (about 40%) of the total and nonresidential, three-fifths (i.e., the bigger portion, at around 60%). Presently, though, according to the Census Bureau’s August 2021 not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) PIP numbers for the total United States, the year-to-date mix has shifted dramatically. The residential to nonresidential relationship has become approximately half and half (i.e., 49.5%-to-50.5% respectively). The Census Bureau’s August 2021 NSA ytd PIP results are +7.0% for total; +25.8%, residential; and -6.7%, nonresidential (i.e., nonresidential buildings plus engineering).   

PIP numbers, being more spread out, have smaller peak-over-trough percent-change amplitudes than the ‘starts’ series. As an additional valuable service for clients and powered by its extensive ‘starts’ database, ConstructConnect, in partnership with Oxford Economics, a world-leader in econometric modeling, has developed put-in-place construction statistics by types of structure for U.S. states, cities, and counties, ‘actuals’ and forecasts. ConstructConnect’s PIP numbers are being released quarterly and are featured in a separate reporting system.

Construction Jobs +47,000 Year to Date

Total employment in U.S. construction rose by +22,000 jobs in September, with half of the increase due to net hiring of +11,000 by nonresidential subcontractors. Residential work played a minimal role in jobs creation in the latest month. Construction has still non recovered all the jobs it lost between February and April of last year. The sector’s jobs claw back ratio is currently 81.9%, slightly ahead of the 77.8% figure for total employment in the country.

Among major sectors, ‘transportation and warehousing’ has the best jobs recovery ratio, at 112.5%. The T&W segment of the economy has fully replaced the big jobs drop in Spring of last year, plus added more workers. Nevertheless, big logistical problems remain unresolved. Delayed offloading at West Coast ports is a particular headache at present, causing supply chain gaps and contributing to the ballooning of general price inflation (+5.4% year over year for the ‘all-items’ Consumer Price Index in September).     

Other corners of the economy with close ties to construction have managed the following year over year increases in employment: architectural and engineering services, +5.2%; machinery and equipment rental and leasing, also +5.2%; real estate firms, +4.3%; oil and gas extraction, +2.8%; cement and concrete product manufacturing, -1.6%; and building material and supplies dealers, -2.6%. The solid increase of +5.2% y/y for employment with project design firms augurs well for eventual sitework construction employment resulting from the lead-lag relationship.

Graph 1: Change in Level of U.S. Construction Employment, Month to Month (M/M) −
Total & by Categories – September 2021

In the 9 months of 2021 so far, there have been 4 months of increases, 4 of decreases and one month of no change. Half of Sept's +22,000 for total jobs arose with nonresidential sub-trade contractors.

For each month, ‘net’ = zero. ‘Subtrade’ in BLS data referred to as ‘specialty’ trade.

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 2: U.S. Employment September 2021 – % Change Y/Y
Based on Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data

The period of exaggerated coronavirus-related swings in  employment is moderating. Construction & manufacturing are essentially tied for y/y jobs gain, but they trail services.

The latest data points are for September 2021.

Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 3: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − September 2021 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Sept 2021's y/y changes in employment within the hardest-hit sector, 'leisure & hospitality', were: 'hotels/motels', +22.5%; 'amusements/gambling', +20.6%; and 'restaurants & bars', +11.7%.

Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 4: U.S. Construction Employment (SA) & Unemployment Rate (NSA)

Construction's employment count has mainly leveled off in 2021. Sept's year-to-date figure was +35,000 jobs. The NSA unemployment rate in the sector has improved to 4.5% vs 7.1% a year ago.

Current through September 2021. SA is seasonally adjusted / NSA is not seasonally adjusted.

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ September 2021

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ September 2021 Chart

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Pluses and Minuses Among Type of Structure Subcategories

September’s +12.7% month-to-month (m/m) increase in total nonresidential starts was entirely due to a big jump in industrial work (+963.0%). Starts volumes in the other three major subcategories moved in the other direction: commercial, -26.3%; engineering, -14.4%; and institutional, -9.7%. Industrial’s leap upwards was thanks to the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel’s two new chipmaking plants (see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – September 2021).

The +31.1% climb in September 2021’s total nonresidential starts versus September 2020 (y/y) resulted from a large advance in industrial, +389.5%, and a decent step forward by heavy engineering, +14.4%. Institutional was barely more than flat, +1.7%. Commercial, though, took a tumble, -12.2%.  

The small pullback of -2.3% in total nonresidential starts year to date (Jan-Sept 2021/Jan-Sept 2020) has flowed from declines of almost equal magnitude in institutional (-10.1%) and commercial (-9.1%). Year-to-date gains in industrial (+41.6%) and engineering (+1.7%) haven’t quite been able to make up the difference.

There are two dominant subcategories of total nonresidential starts. When the nearly equal volumes of ‘roads/highways’ (with a 17.5% share) and ‘schools/colleges’ (with a 15.5% share) are added together, they account for one-third of total nonresidential. The key time-frame metrics for street starts in September were -21.3% m/m; but +20.7% y/y; and +8.0% ytd. The percentage changes for school starts were weaker: -39.1% m/m; -13.9% y/y; and -14.1% ytd.

The next largest contributor (with an 8.7% share) to total nonresidential starts is the ‘water/sewage’ subcategory, which in September managed a +8.2% gain ytd despite contractions of -8.6% m/m and -10.0% y/y.

A combined health care subcategory, comprised of ‘hospitals/clinics,’ ‘nursing/assisted living,’ and ‘miscellaneous medical,’ turned in sterling percentage changes of +60.6% m/m; +32.9% y/y; and +1.5% ytd in September. The ‘hospital/clinic’ subcategory on its own was +130.4% m/m; +88.9% y/y; and +25.9% ytd (see Top 10 list for some of the biggest groundbreakings.)

Within commercial, the ‘hotel/motel’ subcategory remained deeply negative ytd in September, -39.9%, although the month-to-month performance was +58.6%. ‘Private office building’ starts were -51.9% m/m; -7.6% y/y; and -26.8% ytd. ‘Retail/shopping’ was -37.6% m/m; and -7.8% y/y; but +7.0% ytd. Warehouse starts may have been -7.6% ytd, but they were +12.3% m/m; and +26.8% y/y. ‘Government office building’ starts have been a sleeper success at +12.0% ytd.

Table 2: Construction Starts in Some Additional Type of Structure Subcategories

  Jan-SEP 2021 % Change vs
  ($ billions) Jan-SEP 2020
     
Sports Stadiums/Convention Centers $3.236 -17.4%
Transportation Teminals $3.333 62.2%
Courthouses $1.813 39.7%
Police Stations & Fire Halls $2.171 -10.3%
Prisons $1.670 -15.0%
Pre-School/Elementary $13.475 -20.0%
Junior & Senior High Schools $21.674 -7.5%
     K-12  (sum of above two categories) $35.149 -12.8%
Special & Vocational Schools $1.408 -17.6%
Colleges & Universities $11.197 -17.6%
Electric Power Infrastructure $7.670 133.3%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

A More Normal Pattern in Latest JOLTS Results

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows job vacancies in the construction sector, both as a level and rate, edging back up towards the peaks they reached in early 2019. Theoretically, lots of ‘openings’ should lead to a burst of ‘hiring,’ but in many recent months, that hasn’t automatically followed. In September, though, ‘hiring’ did suddenly perk up.

Undoubtedly, one aid to a higher level and rate of worker sign-ups has been significant improvement in pay packages. In September, construction worker earnings were +5.8% y/y hourly and a stunning +10.2% weekly. It should be added that the outsized weekly increase was partly triggered by existing workers staying on the job longer to compensate for a labor shortage.   

Graph 5: U.S. Construction Job Openings (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

Construction job 'openings', as both a level and a rate, have lately risen back near their peaks of early 2019. One response by employers to the challenge of numerous open positions has been a notable uptick in wages paid.

*Rate is number of job openings end-of-month as % of ‘construction employment plus number of job openings.’
Latest seasonally adjusted data points are for August 2021. JOLTS = Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 6: U.S. Construction Job Hires (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

Recent pick-ups in hiring, both as a level and a rate (although still far short of where they were at times in 2019) are finally addressing the abundance of jobs that are on offer in the U.S. construction sector.

*Rate is number of job openings end-of-month as % of ‘construction employment plus number of job openings.’
Latest seasonally adjusted data points are for August 2021. JOLTS = Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Many Trend Graphs on Cusp of Reversing Course

Many of the 12-month moving average trend graphs (Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – September 2021) are preparing to reverse direction from descending to ascending.

Both nonresidential and heavy engineering are showing mild upticks after declining noticeably throughout 2020, then flattening earlier this year.

Within nonresidential building, the slide in institutional starts came to a halt in the latest month, while a recent pattern of upticks in the commercial curve suffered a setback. The ‘private office buildings’ subcategory is still falling, but not as steeply as in 2020. ‘Retail,’ which has had an extremely difficult time since 2016, is now working on a barely perceptible comeback.

The trend line for ‘school/college’ starts continues angling downwards. ‘Hospital/clinic’ starts, though, have leveled off and appear to be contemplating a climb.

The ‘roads/highways’ curve is maintaining expansionary momentum, as is ‘water/sewage’ work, although not to quite the same positive degree. The retreat by ‘miscellaneous civil’ appears to have run its course, with the curve now moving sideways. Finally, the easing in ‘bridge’ starts has, at least momentarily, altered course.

Y/Y Weekly Construction Wages +10.2%

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on non-farm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and non-supervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From Table B3 (including bosses), ‘all jobs’ earnings y/y in September were +4.6% both hourly and weekly. For construction workers, the compensation climb was about even with ‘all jobs’ hourly, +4.5%, but considerably more impressive weekly, +7.2%. There’s more dramatic news to relate. From Table B8 (excluding bosses), the ‘all jobs’ year-over-year earnings gains were +5.5% hourly and +5.8% weekly. Construction workers sped a little ahead of ‘all jobs’ hourly +5.8%, and left ‘all jobs’ in their dust weekly, at +10.2%.

Earlier during the past decade, wage increases, both generally and in construction, ranged between +2.0% and +3.0% y/y. Such days of moderation, temporarily at least, have slipped into history. Lately, when considering the challenges facing the contracting community, there’s been a tendency to fixate on rising material costs. Also warranting a careful look are rising charges for the other key input component, labor.  

Graph 7: Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y – ‘All Jobs’ & Construction

Analysts will be keeping a sharp eye on earnings. They're a reflection of overall economic activity. Perhaps more important, though, they can provide an early warning of mounting behind-the-scenes inflationary pressure.

From ‘Production Workers and Non-supervisory Personnel’ Table (B8).
The latest data points are for September 2021

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 8: Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y – ‘All Jobs’ & Construction

The weekly earnings of U.S. construction workers went into orbit in September, increasing by a double-digit percentage change year over year, +10.2%. The NSA construction unemployment rate is currently quite low, at 4.5%.

From ‘Production Workers and Non-supervisory Personnel’ Table (B8).
The latest data points are for September 2021

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Table 3: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Nonresidential Construction Starts – ConstructConnect

    Jan-SEP 2021 % Change vs Jan-SEP 2020
       
1 Texas $36,062,955,735 -7.0%
2 California $26,222,026,616 -15.4%
3 Florida $17,885,946,387 0.9%
4 New York $16,241,235,836 11.3%
5 Arizona $14,094,761,007 112.7%
6 Ohio $10,881,621,127 -12.1%
7 Pennsylvania $10,847,462,628 25.1%
8 North Carolina $10,478,313,791 32.2%
9 Illinois $10,006,747,640 -16.2%
10 Massachusetts $9,214,623,103 19.6%
11 Georgia $9,176,715,480 -11.0%
12 Minnesota $8,170,896,538 18.6%
13 Tennessee $7,779,264,272 29.4%
14 Virginia $7,312,994,654 -13.0%
15 Missouri $7,131,437,408 -10.1%
16 Michigan $7,129,981,070 10.5%
17 Washington $6,651,198,132 -42.6%
18 Wisconsin $5,799,856,713 -24.9%
19 Indiana $5,724,401,430 -15.9%
20 Colorado $5,541,100,954 -8.1%

Figures are comprised of non-res building & engineering (residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 4: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Nonresidential Building Construction Starts – ConstructConnect

    Jan-SEP 2021 % Change vs Jan-SEP 2020
       
1 Texas $20,909,900,315 -19.9%
2 California $15,094,807,137 -6.9%
3 Arizona $13,099,653,690 159.7%
4 Florida $11,262,208,370 -3.4%
5 New York $10,153,944,161 -0.6%
6 North Carolina $7,770,058,563 26.7%
7 Pennsylvania $7,530,510,542 55.5%
8 Ohio $6,648,793,206 -19.3%
9 Georgia $6,111,044,917 -13.8%
10 Tennessee $5,897,648,868 36.4%
11 Virginia $5,353,263,150 3.6%
12 Illinois $4,803,928,902 -24.6%
13 Missouri $4,714,008,747 -21.2%
14 Massachusetts $4,260,414,088 -24.2%
15 Washington $4,128,977,192 -18.7%
16 Alabama $3,728,834,516 43.4%
17 Louisiana $3,566,700,220 171.5%
18 Maryland $3,553,894,365 -18.4%
19 Colorado $3,520,670,971 -12.6%
20 Michigan $3,152,109,391 -11.2%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 5: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Heavy/Engineering Civil Construction Starts – ConstructConnect

    Jan-SEP 2021 % Change vs Jan-SEP 2020
       
1 Texas $15,153,055,420 19.6%
2 California $11,127,219,479 -24.7%
3 Florida $6,623,738,017 9.3%
4 New York $6,087,291,675 38.8%
5 Minnesota $5,754,369,250 61.3%
6 Illinois $5,202,818,738 -6.7%
7 Massachusetts $4,954,209,015 137.4%
8 Ohio $4,232,827,921 2.1%
9 Michigan $3,977,871,679 37.1%
10 Pennsylvania $3,316,952,086 -13.4%
11 Wisconsin $3,070,050,114 7.3%
12 Georgia $3,065,670,563 -4.8%
13 North Carolina $2,708,255,228 50.8%
14 Indiana $2,609,706,356 -7.3%
15 New Jersey $2,540,145,017 -8.3%
16 Washington $2,522,220,940 -61.2%
17 Missouri $2,417,428,661 24.1%
18 Oklahoma $2,082,041,712 29.1%
19 Iowa $2,056,825,614 -10.6%
20 Colorado $2,020,429,983 0.9%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Ongoing Cost Pressure from Material Inputs

August’s y/y results for three structures-related BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ +31.1% (an enormous increase, but not quite as high as July’s +33.1%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +21.0% (again, a huge jump, but also a small step back from the previous month’s figure, +25.4%) and ‘final demand construction,’ designed to capture bid prices, +5.0% (a little more robust than July’s +4.5%). The historical values for these three series appear in Graph 9.

Concerning the cost of some major construction material inputs, as revealed in the Producer Price Index (PPI) data set published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), softwood lumber in August was -9.8% year over year (it had been +154.3% three months earlier in May); asphalt, +50.9%; hot rolled steel bars, plates, and structural shapes, +49.0%; aluminum sheet and strip, +41.7%; copper wire and cable, +31.4%; and gypsum products, +22.9%.

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

Graph 9: U.S. Construction Bid Prices vs Material Input Costs – August 2021

U.S. Construction Material Cost Changes

Latest data points are for August 2021.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index data set.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

September 2021’s ‘Grand Total’ Starts +7.3% YTD

From Table 8 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in September were +1.3% m/m, +7.7% y/y, and +21.1% ytd. Multi-family starts in September were quite weak, -38.5% m/m and -33.8% y/y, but ytd they were +5.8%. Single-family starts, though, continued to shine in the latest period, +14.3% m/m, +21.1% y/y, and +27.1% ytd. Including home building with all nonresidential categories, Grand Total starts in September 2021 were +7.4% m/m, +19.6% y/y, and +7.3% ytd.

ConstructConnect adopts a research-assigned ‘start’ date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.


Expansion Index Monitors Construction Prospects 

The economy may be in recovery mode, but nonresidential work is usually a lagging player. Companies are hesitant to undertake capital spending until their personnel needs are rapidly expanding and their office square footage or plant footprints are straining capacity. Also, it helps if profits are abundant. (Today’s greater tendency to work from home has made office occupancy much more difficult to assess.)

Each month, ConstructConnect publishes information on upcoming construction projects at its Expansion Index.

The Expansion Index, for hundreds of cities in the United States and Canada, calculates the ratio, based on dollar volume, of projects in the planning stage, at present, divided by the comparable figure a year ago. The ratio moves above 1.0 when there is currently a larger dollar volume of construction ‘prospects’ than there was last year at the same time. The ratio sinks below 1.0 when the opposite is the case. The results are set out in interactive maps for both countries.


Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package – September 2021 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – September 2021.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – September 2021.

TABLE 6: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS
SEPTEMBER 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-SEP 21 Jan-SEP 21 vs    SEP 21 vs   SEP 21 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-SEP 20   SEP 20   AUG 21
             
Hotel/Motel 5.028 -39.9%   2.4%   58.6%
Retail 10.152 7.0%   -7.8%   -37.6%
Parking Garage 1.339 -4.8%   -39.6%   -45.8%
Amusement 5.153 7.5%   -47.6%   -50.2%
Private Office  13.747 -26.8%   -7.6%   -51.9%
Government Office 9.466 12.0%   -43.0%   -21.9%
Laboratory 1.758 6.4%   -34.1%   -39.4%
Warehouse 18.298 -7.6%   26.8%   12.3%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 6.569 10.0%   -17.1%   -26.0%
COMMERCIAL (big subset) 71.509 -9.1%   -12.2%   -26.3%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 23.793 41.6%   389.5%   963.0%
             
Religious 0.757 -35.5%   -65.0%   -69.3%
Hospital/Clinic 12.157 25.9%   88.9%   130.4%
Nursing/Assisted Living 4.364 -23.1%   -57.9%   -41.3%
Library/Museum 1.947 -39.1%   116.2%   34.5%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 5.654 -0.5%   -10.5%   -4.7%
Military 6.507 -3.8%   2.3%   55.6%
School/College 47.754 -14.1%   -13.9%   -39.1%
Miscellaneous Medical 5.197 -14.5%   59.8%   61.0%
INSTITUTIONAL 84.337 -10.1%   1.7%   -9.7%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 4.452 5.3%   -8.9%   9.0%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 184.091 -4.9%   40.1%   31.0%
             
Airport 4.353 -8.8%   -20.3%   -13.3%
Road/Highway 53.856 8.0%   20.7%   -21.3%
Bridge 14.237 -20.9%   20.6%   -20.6%
Dam/Marine 5.244 -10.9%   134.9%   43.8%
Water/Sewage 26.704 8.2%   -10.0%   -8.6%
Miscellaneous Civil (power, pipelines, etc.) 19.298 4.8%   38.3%   -16.9%
HEAVY ENGINEERING (Civil) 123.691 1.7%   14.4%   -14.4%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 307.781 -2.3%   31.1%   12.7%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 7: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – SEPTEMBER 2021
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-Sep 21 Jan-Sep 21 vs     Sep 21 vs Sep 21 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-Sep 20     Aug 20 Aug 21
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     123.691 1.7%     14.4% -14.4%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 184.091 -4.9%     40.1% 31.0%
RESIDENTIAL   265.358 21.1%     7.7% 1.3%
GRAND TOTAL   573.139 7.3%     19.6% 7.4%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 4.353 -8.8%     -20.3% -13.3%
    All Other Civil 11.627 -23.1%     46.9% -34.9%
    Bridges 14.237 -20.9%     20.6% -20.6%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 5.244 -10.9%     134.9% 43.8%
    Power Infrastructure 7.670 133.3%     18.9% 272.0%
    Roads 53.856 8.0%     20.7% -21.3%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 26.704 8.2%     -10.0% -8.6%
CIVIL     123.691 1.7%     14.4% -14.4%
    Offices (private) 13.747 -26.8%     -7.6% -51.9%
    Parking Garages 1.339 -4.8%     -39.6% -45.8%
    Transportation Terminals 3.333 62.2%     -24.0% 15.2%
  Commercial (small subset) 18.419 -17.1%     -13.3% -45.6%
    Amusement 5.153 7.5%     -47.6% -50.2%
    Libraries / Museums 1.947 -39.1%     116.2% 34.5%
    Religious 0.757 -35.5%     -65.0% -69.3%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 3.236 -17.4%     -0.3% -55.8%
  Community 11.092 -15.2%     -24.9% -43.9%
    College / University 11.197 -17.6%     -41.4% -43.9%
    Elementary / Pre School 13.475 -20.0%     3.6% -22.3%
    Jr / Sr High School 21.674 -7.5%     17.6% -45.3%
    Special / Vocational 1.408 -17.6%     -41.7% -21.1%
  Educational 47.754 -14.1%     -13.9% -39.1%
    Courthouses 1.813 39.7%     15.0% 22.8%
    Fire and Police Stations 2.171 -10.3%     -1.9% 9.7%
    Government Offices 9.466 12.0%     -43.0% -21.9%
    Prisons 1.670 -15.0%     -29.4% -28.5%
  Government 15.120 6.9%     -34.1% -16.3%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 1.758 6.4%     -34.1% -39.4%
    Manufacturing 23.793 41.6%     389.5% 963.0%
    Warehouses 18.298 -7.6%     26.8% 12.3%
  Industrial 43.848 14.6%     216.0% 309.6%
    Hospitals / Clinics 12.157 25.9%     88.9% 130.4%
    Medical Misc. 5.197 -14.5%     59.8% 61.0%
    Nursing Homes 4.364 -23.1%     -57.9% -41.3%
  Medical   21.718 1.5%     32.9% 60.6%
  Military   6.507 -3.8%     2.3% 55.6%
    Hotels 5.028 -39.9%     2.4% 58.6%
    Retail Misc. 4.452 5.3%     -8.9% 9.0%
    Shopping 10.152 7.0%     -7.8% -37.6%
  Retail   19.632 -11.1%     -5.3% -14.3%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 184.091 -4.9%     40.1% 31.0%
    Multi-Family 64.685 5.8%     -33.8% -38.5%
    Single-Family 200.672 27.1%     21.1% 14.3%
RESIDENTIAL   265.358 21.1%     7.7% 1.3%
NONRESIDENTIAL 307.781 -2.3%     31.1% 12.7%
GRAND TOTAL   573.139 7.3%     19.6% 7.4%

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 8: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – SEPTEMBER 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-SEP JAN-SEP
  JUL 21 AUG 21 SEP 21 JUL 21 AUG 21 SEP 21 JUL 21 AUG 21 SEP 21 2020 2021
                       
Single Family 24.024 22.350 25.546 24.212 24.007 23.973 21.313 21.465 21.836 157.926 200.672
   month-over-month % change -6.3% -7.0% 14.3% 2.5% -0.8% -0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.7%    
   year-over-year % change 16.0% 8.9% 21.1% 33.8% 19.9% 15.4% 28.3% 27.4% 27.2% 4.8% 27.1%
Apartment 6.558 7.323 4.507 7.357 7.225 6.129 7.252 7.311 7.119 61.112 64.685
   month-over-month % change -15.8% 11.7% -38.5% -13.1% -1.8% -15.2% -0.6% 0.8% -2.6%    
   year-over-year % change -7.9% 10.7% -33.8% 4.3% 2.0% -10.5% -9.5% -5.9% -5.5% -12.4% 5.8%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 30.582 29.672 30.053 31.569 31.232 30.102 28.565 28.776 28.955 219.039 265.358
   month-over-month % change -8.5% -3.0% 1.3% -1.6% -1.1% -3.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%    
   year-over-year % change 9.9% 9.3% 7.7% 25.5% 15.2% 9.0% 16.0% 16.9% 17.3% -0.7% 21.1%
Hotel/Motel 0.696 0.363 0.576 0.693 0.600 0.545 0.592 0.573 0.574 8.364 5.028
   month-over-month % change -6.1% -47.8% 58.6% 3.5% -13.4% -9.2% -1.1% -3.3% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change -10.1% -38.9% 2.4% 24.1% -4.7% -15.3% -59.6% -58.9% -55.5% -49.1% -39.9%
Retail 0.828 1.535 0.958 1.186 1.298 1.107 1.053 1.085 1.078 9.487 10.152
   month-over-month % change -45.9% 85.3% -37.6% -7.3% 9.4% -14.7% -1.6% 3.1% -0.6%    
   year-over-year % change -20.3% 34.0% -7.8% 20.4% 21.0% 3.0% -3.8% 0.8% 2.9% -29.3% 7.0%
Parking Garages 0.177 0.145 0.079 0.144 0.150 0.134 0.147 0.144 0.139 1.407 1.339
   month-over-month % change 40.4% -18.1% -45.8% 40.1% 4.2% -10.6% 4.6% -2.2% -3.0%    
   year-over-year % change 78.6% -20.9% -39.6% 0.6% 10.9% -2.9% -15.5% -15.7% -19.6% -43.5% -4.8%
Amusement 1.167 0.602 0.300 0.791 0.818 0.690 0.558 0.578 0.555 4.795 5.153
   month-over-month % change 70.4% -48.4% -50.2% 47.4% 3.4% -15.7% 13.4% 3.6% -3.9%    
   year-over-year % change 208.6% 65.4% -47.6% 80.9% 90.9% 57.4% -1.6% 3.9% -0.7% -15.6% 7.5%
Office 1.887 2.783 1.338 1.288 1.869 2.003 1.822 1.747 1.738 18.770 13.747
   month-over-month % change 101.7% 47.5% -51.9% 6.2% 45.1% 7.2% 2.7% -4.1% -0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 43.1% -24.4% -7.6% -6.4% -16.4% -6.8% -27.8% -33.3% -29.6% -27.0% -26.8%
Governmental Offices 2.085 1.257 0.982 1.283 1.375 1.441 1.004 1.034 0.973 8.455 9.466
   month-over-month % change 166.5% -39.7% -21.9% 35.3% 7.1% 4.9% 11.4% 3.0% -6.0%    
   year-over-year % change 145.3% 40.9% -43.0% 56.5% 55.9% 24.8% 10.6% 17.0% 2.4% -3.9% 12.0%
Laboratories 0.370 0.253 0.153 0.228 0.269 0.258 0.200 0.211 0.205 1.652 1.758
   month-over-month % change 101.5% -31.6% -39.4% 34.7% 18.0% -3.8% 10.4% 5.4% -3.1%    
   year-over-year % change 156.9% 107.3% -34.1% 53.9% 64.2% 55.7% -7.8% 8.7% 9.6% -9.6% 6.4%
Warehouse 1.626 1.893 2.126 1.893 1.845 1.881 2.060 2.021 2.059 19.808 18.298
   month-over-month % change -19.4% 16.4% 12.3% -21.5% -2.6% 2.0% -0.8% -1.9% 1.9%    
   year-over-year % change -10.7% -19.6% 26.8% -17.9% -20.5% -3.5% -4.1% -4.9% -3.0% 17.1% -7.6%
Misc Commercial 0.304 0.698 0.517 1.103 1.205 0.506 0.634 0.632 0.623 5.971 6.569
   month-over-month % change -88.4% 129.9% -26.0% -8.2% 9.3% -58.0% -7.9% -0.3% -1.4%    
   year-over-year % change -68.1% -3.4% -17.1% 66.0% 63.0% -33.9% -38.1% -36.9% -21.4% -65.0% 10.0%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 9.139 9.530 7.028 8.608 9.427 8.566 8.069 8.025 7.944 78.708 71.509
   month-over-month % change -4.9% 4.3% -26.3% 0.9% 9.5% -9.1% 1.9% -0.5% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change 23.9% -5.3% -12.2% 15.7% 9.5% 1.0% -20.3% -19.9% -17.2% -27.3% -9.1%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 2.137 0.996 10.587 1.766 1.429 4.573 1.891 1.683 2.385 16.801 23.793
   month-over-month % change 85.5% -53.4% 963.0% 21.0% -19.1% 220.1% 4.6% -11.0% 41.7%    
   year-over-year % change 88.6% -71.5% 389.5% 16.5% -21.1% 102.0% -28.8% -12.1% 18.2% -65.3% 41.6%
Religious 0.040 0.148 0.046 0.088 0.093 0.078 0.104 0.108 0.101 1.173 0.757
   month-over-month % change -55.7% 269.8% -69.3% -14.3% 5.2% -16.1% -3.8% 3.3% -6.6%    
   year-over-year % change -55.5% 38.3% -65.0% -21.6% -13.5% -28.5% -25.0% -20.1% -24.7% -19.7% -35.5%
Hosptials/Clinics 0.915 0.773 1.780 0.886 0.958 1.156 1.287 1.251 1.320 9.657 12.157
   month-over-month % change -22.9% -15.5% 130.4% -4.5% 8.1% 20.7% -1.4% -2.8% 5.6%    
   year-over-year % change -19.8% -36.2% 88.9% -20.2% -15.3% 5.3% -17.0% -14.2% -5.8% -33.9% 25.9%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.343 0.531 0.312 0.573 0.568 0.395 0.572 0.551 0.515 5.675 4.364
   month-over-month % change -58.8% 55.0% -41.3% -8.0% -0.9% -30.5% -0.8% -3.8% -6.5%    
   year-over-year % change -13.2% -32.9% -57.9% 15.7% -5.6% -38.5% -10.6% -18.2% -20.5% -24.4% -23.1%
Libraries/Museums 0.352 0.157 0.211 0.294 0.237 0.240 0.210 0.204 0.213 3.195 1.947
   month-over-month % change 74.6% -55.3% 34.5% 39.0% -19.5% 1.4% 5.1% -3.2% 4.6%    
   year-over-year % change 53.3% -33.7% 116.2% -1.4% -10.3% 27.6% -44.8% -48.0% -40.4% 7.4% -39.1%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.618 0.607 0.578 0.675 0.705 0.601 0.710 0.677 0.671 5.683 5.654
   month-over-month % change -30.5% -1.8% -4.7% 0.9% 4.4% -14.7% 0.2% -4.6% -0.8%    
   year-over-year % change 2.8% -39.4% -10.5% 33.4% 0.0% -19.8% 13.5% 2.9% 6.9% 11.8% -0.5%
Military 0.567 0.628 0.977 0.846 0.812 0.724 0.744 0.744 0.746 6.765 6.507
   month-over-month % change -54.4% 10.8% 55.6% 14.4% -3.9% -10.9% -0.3% 0.0% 0.3%    
   year-over-year % change -4.4% -0.5% 2.3% 45.5% 29.7% -0.3% 9.9% 5.9% 3.5% 113.3% -3.8%
Schools/Colleges 5.177 5.826 3.546 6.479 6.240 4.850 5.019 5.021 4.973 55.583 47.754
   month-over-month % change -32.9% 12.5% -39.1% -4.3% -3.7% -22.3% -1.8% 0.0% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change -17.8% 0.5% -13.9% -16.3% -13.8% -10.3% -14.6% -14.5% -14.8% -9.5% -14.1%
Misc Government 0.452 0.533 0.858 0.564 0.580 0.614 0.589 0.585 0.611 6.075 5.197
   month-over-month % change -40.2% 18.0% 61.0% -12.6% 2.9% 5.9% -4.8% -0.8% 4.6%    
   year-over-year % change -44.3% -9.1% 59.8% -20.4% -6.7% -4.8% -18.5% -16.8% -11.3% -15.0% -14.5%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 8.462 9.203 8.308 10.405 10.192 8.658 9.236 9.139 9.151 93.806 84.337
   month-over-month % change -34.5% 8.8% -9.7% -2.6% -2.0% -15.1% -1.5% -1.0% 0.1%    
   year-over-year % change -16.7% -11.2% 1.7% -9.9% -9.8% -9.5% -13.0% -13.7% -12.2% -9.2% -10.1%
Misc Non Residential 0.541 0.395 0.431 0.550 0.463 0.456 0.513 0.505 0.501 4.229 4.452
   month-over-month % change 19.4% -27.0% 9.0% 2.9% -15.7% -1.6% 2.6% -1.6% -0.7%    
   year-over-year % change 40.2% -20.3% -8.9% 22.8% -2.3% 0.9% -10.2% -10.2% -9.2% -19.7% 5.3%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 20.280 20.124 26.353 21.328 21.511 22.252 19.710 19.352 19.980 193.544 184.091
   month-over-month % change -16.0% -0.8% 31.0% 0.6% 0.9% 3.4% 0.5% -1.8% 3.2%    
   year-over-year % change 6.4% -17.6% 40.1% 1.8% -3.0% 7.2% -17.8% -16.2% -11.5% -27.1% -4.9%
Airports 0.563 0.639 0.554 0.737 0.697 0.585 0.486 0.479 0.468 4.771 4.353
   month-over-month % change -36.6% 13.4% -13.3% 6.7% -5.4% -16.0% -2.0% -1.4% -2.4%    
   year-over-year % change -17.6% -11.5% -20.3% 4.4% -9.0% -16.4% -8.5% -10.4% -13.9% -15.5% -8.8%
Roads/Highways 8.115 6.147 4.835 7.519 7.020 6.366 5.489 5.567 5.636 49.856 53.856
   month-over-month % change 19.4% -24.2% -21.3% 4.5% -6.6% -9.3% 3.5% 1.4% 1.2%    
   year-over-year % change 37.1% 17.9% 20.7% 13.8% 15.5% 26.2% 2.4% 4.3% 7.1% -4.1% 8.0%
Bridges 1.493 1.463 1.162 1.566 1.500 1.373 1.539 1.566 1.583 18.008 14.237
   month-over-month % change -3.4% -2.0% -20.6% -9.6% -4.2% -8.5% -3.4% 1.8% 1.1%    
   year-over-year % change -30.3% 28.5% 20.6% -33.7% -27.7% -3.0% -30.5% -26.8% -20.4% -26.0% -20.9%
Dams/Marine 0.574 0.643 0.925 0.568 0.625 0.714 0.606 0.593 0.637 5.883 5.244
   month-over-month % change -12.8% 12.1% 43.8% 0.4% 10.0% 14.2% 0.5% -2.2% 7.5%    
   year-over-year % change 6.5% -20.2% 134.9% -18.0% -7.1% 23.2% -10.9% -16.5% -8.7% -2.9% -10.9%
Water/Sewage 3.436 3.109 2.841 3.460 3.268 3.129 2.762 2.798 2.772 24.686 26.704
   month-over-month % change 5.4% -9.5% -8.6% 8.8% -5.6% -4.3% 1.7% 1.3% -0.9%    
   year-over-year % change 18.8% 16.2% -10.0% 21.1% 8.7% 7.6% 4.4% 3.8% 1.3% 5.3% 8.2%
Misc Civil 4.142 1.558 1.295 2.333 2.469 2.332 1.989 1.938 1.967 18.407 19.298
   month-over-month % change 142.7% -62.4% -16.9% 32.6% 5.8% -5.5% 7.1% -2.6% 1.5%    
   year-over-year % change 62.3% -28.5% 38.3% -16.3% 9.7% 23.4% -45.3% -35.6% -28.2% -41.9% 4.8%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 18.322 13.560 11.612 16.184 15.579 14.498 12.872 12.941 13.063 121.610 123.691
   month-over-month % change 23.3% -26.0% -14.4% 7.0% -3.7% -6.9% 2.4% 0.5% 0.9%    
   year-over-year % change 24.4% 6.5% 14.4% 1.1% 4.9% 15.6% -14.6% -10.3% -6.5% -15.1% 1.7%
GRAND TOTAL 69.184 63.357 68.018 69.081 68.322 66.853 61.147 61.069 61.999 534.192 573.139
   month-over-month % change -4.5% -8.4% 7.4% 1.0% -1.1% -2.2% 1.0% -0.1% 1.5%    
   year-over-year % change 12.3% -1.5% 19.6% 11.2% 6.5% 9.7% -4.0% -1.7% 1.2% -15.1% 7.3%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 38.602 33.684 37.965 37.512 37.091 36.751 32.582 32.293 33.043 315.154 307.781
   month-over-month % change -1.0% -12.7% 12.7% 3.2% -1.1% -0.9% 1.2% -0.9% 2.3%    
   year-over-year % change 14.3% -9.3% 31.1% 1.5% 0.2% 10.4% -16.5% -13.9% -9.6% -22.9% -2.3%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 9: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS,
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-SEP 2020   JAN-SEP 2021   % Change
           
Connecticut $3,037,463,954   $2,235,812,575   -26.4%
Maine $1,404,561,889   $2,585,764,499   84.1%
Massachusetts $7,703,936,654   $9,214,623,103   19.6%
New Hampshire $790,538,617   $1,066,197,954   34.9%
Rhode Island $636,131,445   $805,285,996   26.6%
Vermont $468,987,403   $327,379,490   -30.2%
Total New England $14,041,619,962   $16,235,063,617   15.6%
New Jersey $5,974,760,848   $4,982,630,936   -16.6%
New York $14,596,441,910   $16,241,235,836   11.3%
Pennsylvania $8,672,125,675   $10,847,462,628   25.1%
Total Middle Atlantic $29,243,328,433   $32,071,329,400   9.7%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $43,284,948,395   $48,306,393,017   11.6%
Illinois $11,948,186,425   $10,006,747,640   -16.2%
Indiana $6,802,678,573   $5,724,401,430   -15.9%
Michigan $6,451,883,946   $7,129,981,070   10.5%
Ohio $12,385,461,942   $10,881,621,127   -12.1%
Wisconsin $7,718,206,789   $5,799,856,713   -24.9%
Total East North Central $45,306,417,675   $39,542,607,980   -12.7%
Iowa $4,319,095,964   $4,421,188,643   2.4%
Kansas $3,912,766,547   $2,359,364,661   -39.7%
Minnesota $6,886,581,623   $8,170,896,538   18.6%
Missouri $7,933,474,279   $7,131,437,408   -10.1%
Nebraska $3,632,560,475   $3,075,371,606   -15.3%
North Dakota $2,050,017,481   $1,930,980,764   -5.8%
South Dakota $1,013,605,828   $1,525,874,826   50.5%
Total West North Central $29,748,102,197   $28,615,114,446   -3.8%
TOTAL MIDWEST $75,054,519,872   $68,157,722,426   -9.2%
Delaware $1,368,499,277   $861,333,122   -37.1%
District of Columbia $708,564,070   $725,804,706   2.4%
Florida $17,725,449,479   $17,885,946,387   0.9%
Georgia $10,306,198,660   $9,176,715,480   -11.0%
Maryland $5,624,898,413   $4,515,666,915   -19.7%
North Carolina $7,926,830,245   $10,478,313,791   32.2%
South Carolina $4,326,303,068   $3,936,015,027   -9.0%
Virginia $8,409,555,933   $7,312,994,654   -13.0%
West Virginia $2,049,944,391   $933,355,705   -54.5%
Total South Atlantic $58,446,243,536   $55,826,145,787   -4.5%
Alabama $3,855,836,528   $5,256,131,414   36.3%
Kentucky $2,668,803,953   $2,834,496,163   6.2%
Mississippi $2,282,281,681   $1,720,886,712   -24.6%
Tennessee $6,012,438,048   $7,779,264,272   29.4%
Total East South Central $14,819,360,210   $17,590,778,561   18.7%
Arkansas $3,042,946,740   $2,299,504,202   -24.4%
Louisiana $3,547,967,326   $5,457,469,004   53.8%
Oklahoma $3,327,751,542   $3,567,635,351   7.2%
Texas $38,779,576,587   $36,062,955,735   -7.0%
Total West South Central $48,698,242,195   $47,387,564,292   -2.7%
TOTAL SOUTH $121,963,845,941   $120,804,488,640   -1.0%
Arizona $6,627,550,703   $14,094,761,007   112.7%
Colorado $6,030,841,509   $5,541,100,954   -8.1%
Idaho $1,175,580,892   $964,968,579   -17.9%
Montana $1,316,508,026   $864,611,823   -34.3%
Nevada $3,082,113,761   $3,163,880,722   2.7%
New Mexico $1,645,569,785   $1,536,810,979   -6.6%
Utah $5,536,630,087   $3,833,524,790   -30.8%
Wyoming $786,457,807   $836,928,148   6.4%
Total Mountain $26,201,252,570   $30,836,587,002   17.7%
Alaska $1,173,619,542   $989,855,272   -15.7%
California $30,999,960,284   $26,222,026,616   -15.4%
Hawaii $1,524,904,354   $1,495,447,610   -1.9%
Oregon $3,371,764,260   $4,317,702,880   28.1%
Washington $11,579,104,448   $6,651,198,132   -42.6%
Total Pacific $48,649,352,888   $39,676,230,510   -18.4%
TOTAL WEST $74,850,605,458   $70,512,817,512   -5.8%
TOTAL U.S. $315,153,919,666   $307,781,421,595   -2.3%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.


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